European Football

The various scenarios ahead of Nice v. Paris

May 14 2024, 11:01 AM

Having secured a top-five place for the sixth time in the 21st century last weekend (after doing the same in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020 and 2022), OGC Nice will be playing European football again next season. However, the exact continental competition in which they will feature is yet to be decided. So, ahead of the rescheduled Matchday 32 game at home to Paris (tomorrow at 21:00 CET), let’s take a look at the various possible scenarios.

AHEAD OF KICK-OFF, LE GYM ARE IN THE EUROPA LEAGUE

Before the game against PSG kicks off, Le Gym are guaranteed to qualify for the league phase of the UEFA Europa League at the very least, without having to go through the qualifying rounds. This delightful prospect is thanks to their 1-0 win over Le Havre last weekend, combined with Lens’s 1-1 draw with Rennes, meaning that Francesco Farioli’s men can no longer be overtaken by any of the teams below them and can now focus solely on looking upwards.

they’ll be in the EUROPA LEAGUE at full time, too, but…

With 54 points in the bag going into their game in hand, Les Aiglons currently sit four points behind both fourth-placed Brest and third-placed Lille.

Regardless of what happens in their clash with the French champions, Nice’s league position won’t change tomorrow night, but their hopes of going even further will.

If they beat Paris, Le Gym will come to within a point of Lille and Brest before travelling to face the former on Sunday in their final game of the season. Meanwhile, Brest are set to head to Toulouse, who beat PSG 3-1 last weekend.
If they draw with Paris, Dante and co. will move to within three points of both Les Pirates and Les Dogues. At this point, their European dream would be reliant upon a monumental set of circumstances: a win by three goals for Les Aiglons over Lille (which would see them overtake Les Dogues thanks to the 1-1 draw between the two sides in the reverse fixture; see below) and a defeat for Brest away to Toulouse, with a point being enough for the Bretons to finish in the top three*.
If they lose to Paris, Nice will be guaranteed to finish fifth but will no longer be able to catch any of the teams above them.

if clubs finish level on points, how will they be separated?

Clubs will be separated according to the following criteria, as defined by Article 518 of the 2023/2024 regulations (the 2022/2023 criteria, which still apply this season, can be viewed in English here).

1. Overall goal difference:
If clubs finish level on points, the final ranking of the tied clubs will be determined by the difference between the goals scored and the goals conceded by each of them during the matches played over the course of the season.

2. Head-to-head points:
If the clubs are still tied, advantage will be given to the club that has picked up the most points in the matches played between them.

3. Head-to-head goal difference:
If the clubs are still tied, they will be separated based on the goal difference in the matches played between them.

4. Head-to-head goals scored:
If the clubs are still tied, advantage will be given to the club that has scored the most goals in the matches played between them.

5. Head-to-head away goals scored:
If the clubs are still tied, advantage will be given to the club that has scored the most away goals in the matches played between them.

6. Overall goals scored:
If the clubs are still tied, advantage will be given to the club that has scored the most goals over the course of the entire Ligue 1 Uber Eats season.

7. Overall away goals scored:
If the clubs are still tied, advantage will be given to the club that has scored the most away goals over the course of the entire Ligue 1 Uber Eats season.

8. Fair play:
If the clubs are still tied, the LFP will separate the clubs based on which one has the fewest fair-play points: yellow card = 1 point; red card = 3 points.

*The team that finishes in third place will directly qualify for the league phase of the 2024–2025 UEFA Champions League, while the team that finishes in fourth place will enter the third qualifying round of the 2024–2025 UEFA Champions League, then potentially the play-off round, and will be guaranteed a place in the league phase of the 2024–2025 UEFA Europa League at the very least.